25th Dec – The Christmas gift from China
The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics today revised the growth up for 2008. Originally was reported 9,0% but the final result was 9,6%. The reason was higher production in the service sector than anticipated. The service sector accounted for 41,8% of the GDP instead of 40,1% reported earlier (To compare do the service sector account for more 70% in old economies).
We are with high speed moving towards the end of 2009, so why bother about historical numbers ? Basically right, but Peng Zhilong from the National Bureau of Statistics also hinted some expectations for 2009.
The first 9 month GDP growth this year is so far reported as 7,7% (year on year) but will most be revised up. It actually means that China is about to overtake Japan as the second largest economy in the world.
For many it is not a surprise and the market didn’t react on the news today. Long term it should be noted as it confirms the steady picture of the Chinese economy, that the service sector grows faster than expected and the growing global importance of the economy. Another argument for having Chinese stocks in the portfolio and manage them actively.
The short term focus in the Chinese market is still on the confirmed ongoing loose monetary policy – positive impact.
Peter













