The Greenback continues to be fundamental weak in several ways. This was also highlighted earlier in the week where USD had some upside momentum but EUR/USD never came lower than 1,4825. If this is the current “strong” level for the greenback, then there is a good basis for a move towards 1,5500. Especially the US housing data this week showed stronger than expected October data. The headlines are more impressive than reality due to the downwards revisions of erlier data, though still an improvement that surprise me a bit. It should have helped USD but confirms the negative momentum right now.

Very important is the rising activity among  hedge funds and other position takers. They now go short USD after the FOMC meeting signaled no rate hike in US within any foreseeable time. For some time I mentioned that the 1,4850 level seemed neutral, with low activity and fewer positions. This means that the move to the actual 1,5100 level by no way is large and the way higher is free. The carry trades (short USD against higher yielding currencies or gold) are growing and these positions have tight stop-losses, but I don’t think it will danger the current downturn for the Dollar.
No data the coming days, so it will be go by the flow.
USD/JPY is very close to 86,00 that I have been dreaming about for some time. No reason to fear intervention right know. Expect some comments from Europe, though without power.

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