It will take another 10 years before I can use that head line again. It sounds very impressive but it just concerns the last days of this year.

The market activity will, as usual, be lower after the weekend until New Year but during the last days of this decade we have the chance to enjoy a few important numbers.

Here is what I am looking for the coming days:
From Japan, before 28th Dec the Dec business
conditions for small businesses is released. It’s almost a preliminary number, that alone makes it interesting though the survey itself is also worth to notice. Last month it was 43,0. Please note that the big business worsened in the period October to December due to MOF. Downside risk for Japan.

On Monday from Japan the Nov preliminary industrial production and the retail sales is published, interesting numbers from the second largest economy in the world.

In my view US offers one really important number the coming week. On Tuesday, the Dec consumer confidence will give us a hint about the very much watched US consumers. The average of economists go for 52,8, up from 49,5 last month. Most likely, but a higher number than 53,0 is needed to boost stock markets further.

Towards end of the week (maybe Saturday included) 2 UK organizations announces the house price developments in Dec. Nationwide first and then Halifax, a small increase in December is expected.

One could almost feel tempted to say, that China never sleeps so they announce the interesting NBS Manufacturing PMI 1st January, 55,2 last month with an increase expected again.

As mentioned will next week only offer low activity but stocks will follow the fundamental data (better than expected = rising markets and vice versa).

The currency market will be dominated by “end of year” adjustments without any clear trend. Next year the Dollar will move lower anyway.

Peter

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