Get Markets Right

The Greenback continues to be fundamental weak in several ways. This was also highlighted earlier in the week where USD had some upside momentum but EUR/USD never came lower than 1,4825. If this is the current “strong” level for the greenback, then there is a good basis for a move towards 1,5500. Especially the US housing data this week showed stronger than expected October data. The headlines are more impressive than reality due to the downwards revisions of erlier data, though still an improvement that surprise me a bit. It should have helped USD but confirms the negative momentum right now.

Very important is the rising activity among  hedge funds and other position takers. They now go short USD…

A friend in Hong Kong wrote some thing to me, where I allow to pick the main aspects.

Data published by National Bureau of Statistics of China lately confirmed that the world’s 3^rd largest economy is on track.

Retail sales gained a 16.2% year-on-year increase, which is 0.7% above the figure of last month. Some economists hold the opinion that China’s economy rebound is mainly due to its huge stimulus package. This mainly drive up its fixed investment, and this kind of economic growth mode is not sustainable when government retreat from this huge economy. The steadiness in the private consumption gives the economy a long-term momentum which we notice as a positive factor.

Very important was the industrial output that…

I think the quarterly Bank of England report released Wednesday 11^th give some good hints to the market. Particularly when we bear in mind that Bank of England has been very negative. The Bank forecast growth rates of 2.1 per cent for 2010 and 4 per cent for 2011. This is suddenly much higher than the outlook of private sector economists and the Treasury’s forecast.

Bank of England still tells us not to be too excited with the wording from the governor Mr. King “Small movements in quarterly growth rates will not alter the extent of the challenges now facing the economy, such is the scale of the fall in output over the past 18 months,” he said. “We have…

Worse than expected. The jump to 10,2% in jobless rate against the market consensus  of 9,9% is the headline to hit the newspapers Saturday morning. It cannot be neglected despite some weather conditions making it impossible for more workers to come to work compared to the average October. I also respect that the September non-farm payroll was revised to a significant better number. All in all it doesn’t change the 10,2% nasty number. The investor should also notice that the weekly working hours didn’t go up as many expected – i.e. no real demand for more working hours. As mentioned last week do I expect this to hurt both the greenback and US equities meaning the negative correlation between USD…

Dear Reader,

During the last month I have explored some technical problems which I apologise. I have have been working on some changes as well. The new updated version of the blog I expect to launch in mid December. The comments goes on as usual.

Best regards

Peter