Get Markets Right

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 5 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 5 entries from today are:

Currency markets – Finally reacting on different factors

Equities – Another bull go, backed by the US tax payer – PPIP it’s called this time….

China – Reorganizing the car industry

Hot Topic – EUR/USD – Did Fed start a new EUR/USD trend ?

Central bank rates – They did, quantitative easing from Fed…….

Currency markets – Finally reacting on different factors

EUR/USD (1,3550): This weeks “Hot Topic” is EUR/USD but the conclusion is here.

Short term the US housing data Monday to Wednesday might help the greenback and even the personal income (exp. -0,1%) and personal spending (exp. +0,2) could support. Funny enough, I have the feeling that if the PPIP news are well received it’s also dollar supportive. It explains the entry level at 1,3300 if I should take a position. As it is too early with the big investor depression about the huge US debt, the position will not be the fundamental one. Therefore I would choose a stop loss at 1,3000 and very likely an exit at 1,4000, maybe even a turnaround…

Equities – Another bull go, backed by the US tax payer – PPIP it’s called this time….

Nikkei 225 (8.216)  Topix (792)  Dax (4.719)  FTSE 100 (3.974) Dow Jones (7.555)  S&P 500 (792) Nasdaq Comp (1.509)  

It almost feels like history, but I need to touch base on the surprise announcement from Fed last week about buying T-bonds. If you had asked me even 1 minute before the announcement, I wouldn’t have believed it to happen. Mr. Bernanke is truly living the “helicopter speech” (if you need a copy I can provide it).

The bond market intervention from Fed only helped US equities for a few trading hours, so why spend time on the plan? The plan is of serious…

China – Reorganizing the car industry

Hang Seng (13.447)  Shanghai B (152,00)  USD/CNY (6,8330)

This week the market will chew on the old data once more and focus on different rumours about old or coming numbers.

The domestic sentiment is still positive and will trade higher. Hang Seng is very bid due to the large component of real estate and banks, so up as well, following the world.

A currently battled sector might be worth to have a look at.

If you believe that car producers will belong in the future equity portfolio (it will in mine portfolio), then the Chinese government has decided how the Chinese controlled car industry will be shaped in the future. The interesting plan was published 20th March.

According…

Hot Topic – EUR/USD – Did Fed start a new EUR/USD trend ?

EUR/USD (1,2975): Last week I was waiting for the next hurricane, but it was a big surprise for me that Fed should be behind it. I have long argued that the market long term will judge the US debt very negative sending the greenback lower. Last week we got a feeling for it as the dollar index had the steepest weekly drop in 24 years. My problem is that it was a surprise and conflicts with my short term view on EUR/USD.

A Fed purchase of T-bonds as quantitative easing was the next step in Mr. Bernankes “helicopter speech”, where the global financial community showed “thumps down” by selling…

Central bank rates – They did, quantitative easing from Fed…….

US Federal Reserve Bank: Quantitative easing……

Bank of England: Now at 1,00% with a good chance that they cut again. 

European Central Bank: Next cut is in April to 1,00% from the current 1,50%.

Bank of Japan: 0,10% – that was it.

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – Feels like waiting for the next hurricane.

Equities – The bulls are having a party

China – Still joining the bull party

Central bank rates – One cut more from ECB in April and we are there.

Currency markets – Feels like waiting for the next hurricane.

EUR/USD (1,2975): Trading around 1,3000 is slightly above the current range and also a sign that my bearish view on stock markets suffers short term. It is still all about equities so it’s hard to come up with anything new regarding FX compared to the comments from the last weeks. I will keep the FX views fairly short for the same reason.

I have the long term view that the greenback will be hurt from the growing US debt and investor uncertainty. Short term, on the other hand Europe has the well known and serious credit exposure in CEE. The markets act as had the risks disappeared – sorry but they…

Equities – The bulls are having a party

Nikkei 225 (7.949)  Topix (760)  Dax (3.988)  FTSE 100 (3.864) Dow Jones (7.217)  S&P 500 (753) Nasdaq Comp (1.404)  

Do doubt that the current environment is positive – is it a trend turnaround or a bear market rally? The rational answer is, that it is a bear market rally because there is still no rational reason for rising stock markets. The major problem with my opinion is that the market many times isn’t particularly rational. In addition I acknowledge that this rebound has been more forceful and more substantial than prior.

I actually spend the weekend reading some bull articles and research to test my bearish view. For the frequent reader it won’t…

China – Still joining the bull party

Hang Seng (13.031)  Shanghai B (144,00)  USD/CNY (6,8340)

The economic numbers from China are mixed. Domestic car sales went up but import and export dropped further in February. What is more mixed are the different economists views on the economic data.  It seems that each economist uses the arguments that fits to the personal view, and these are in all directions. It also shows how devoted the market is.

We will need more data to get a clear idea about the next move in domestic equities. The global positive sentiment should spill over on the Chinese stock market during the week keeping the bulls happy.

Some interesting information always come out. Friday, People’s Bank of China and…