Get Markets Right

Delayed update from 26th Nov.

Stocks: Sunny side up these days, but don’t get toasted.

We never see the bottom, before after the bottom, but I doubt it was last week.

Stock markets are globally in the good mood due to the above rescue packages. Good that many equity investors focus at the short term benefit instead of the coming higher government bond yield. Going forward the higher yields will compete with stocks. With lower corporate earnings in the coming years is the only compensation to buy stocks at a lower price than current levels.

I conclude that global demand for all sorts of goods has declined so much (not just temporary stopped), that the market place has become smaller. Either…

Delayed entry from Wednesday 26th Nov.

Do you remember the good old days?

The time, when a US rescue package worth the giant amount of USD 160 billion, could turn all markets around. Some economists even said that it would save the US economy from recession. Today (or more precise, last weekend) it wouldn’t even be enough to save a leading US bank……….

It leads to the headline from the stock market comment last week. Good news are doable, but the price is high and getting higher – I think that became clear for everybody during last Sunday. During the weekend the amount that the US government has guaranteed exceeded USD 7800 billion (through Fed, direct capital injections, through other channels, etc), the…

Stocks and the Dollar are going up and down

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets. In my view it is still too early to enter anywhere with the strategic investments apart from oil – please read the Hot Topic below this entry. The China update every week is worth to read as China will overcome……

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the outlook here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

Currency markets – Capital flows are still making the lead.

EUR/USD (1,2710): Last week I thought it was time to focus on fundamentals.…

This weeks Hot Topic is oil again. The price is dropping but the market is moving towards a significant rebound – or the world towards a depression where nothing is in demand anymore. I believe the world rebounds, that’s why I think oil is so very important to focus at now.

I hope you will read my view and comment.

Hot Topic – Oil part II – One day oil catapults higher.

I see two possible outcomes.

One, and not an impossible outcome, is that the current recession develops to a prolonged and deep depression where it feels like the world switches off. We all know it means asset prices somewhere down there, and same place for commodity prices.

If you believe in life…

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets. In my view it is still too early to enter anywhere with the strategic investments. But please follow the China update every week, this it’s even the Hot Topic so you will find it as a comment below this section. Markets are changing focus to react on fundamental economic data is my opinion. It means up and down for stocks…..

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the outlook here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

Global equities – it’s…

Dear Reader,

China is covered every week but after the official announcement about the stimulus package over the weekend I found China a natural Hot Topic.

Please share your view on my comments her below.

China – turning into a US alike economy.

Hang Seng (14.745)  Shanghai B (100)  USD/CNY (6,8255)

The Chinese stimulus package certainly is good news, particularly on mid- to long term horizon. The frequent reader of the China comments will find similar components in the stimulus package and the solutions discussed in the weekly comments. I can only agree in what the Chinese government is doing.

The nearly $600 billion package represents 14-15% of GDP over the next 2 years which is significant. Only some headlines about where the money will be…

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets. In my view it is still too early to enter anywhere with the strategic investments. But please follow the China update every week, this is where I believe the first opportunities will come. The Hot Topic this week is about oil, I argue why the best for the world is a higher oil price to around $85 per barrel.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the outlook here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

Global equities:

Nikkei 225 (8.577)  Topix…

The oil price is not a concern anymore, so why regard the lower oil price as a risk and not an opportunity? Right now some in the equity markets believe in a soon end of the global crisis. If this is the case, then oil demand should jump sending the price much higher, that again contracts global growth before growth got started. Intuition says that the oil market isn’t balanced leading to a risk for new big swings in the oil price, growth and stock prices.

Another reason to check oil is the yearly annual report from IEA later this month.  A draft version is apparently circulating among some journalists. It contains information that should worry oil consumers and global…