Get Markets Right

The wild times simply continue. The FX market is manageable, it’s good to be a bear on stocks but I have been forced to change my Fed view. I predicted a rate hike in December, but it’s a cut in October. Not that I think it’s a good idea but that’s how life is.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the outlook here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view on the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, inflation and what to expect from the central banks.

Equities

Global comment

Even the “hopers” starts to admit that the world isn’t as good as one would wish, and many professionals now shout lower!…

The last 48 hours we have had so many news and developments in the financial markets that I thought it would good to exchange views.

Market participants with intraday like positions have learned that all good news about the TARP bailout plan is a signal to buy stocks (in particular) and USD (to some extend). Whereas delay or negative news is the signal to sell what we just bought. TARP attract so much attention that all other news are ignored, which should worry as Thursdays data was seriously bearish.

The Japanese Aug trade balance yesterday morning showed the first Japanese trade deficit since 1982, which is fairly important to notice. But with all eyes on US the details are even more…

I can only say that it’s more than interesting to work in the financial markets. During the last 20 years I have only seen a few similar situations to what we explore now. Before I started in the market we had the first Far East crisis, then the ERM that broke together and the wild FX market after that, then the second Far East crisis. But these crises were mainly new pricing of financial assets. These are often painful but short lived. 2 other situations are very important to learn from – the Japanese real estate melt down in the early 1990’s and the same in the Nordic area around the same period. The lessons to learn from these 2…

A special edition about the Chinese stock market as I find this the most interesting and might offer the first true opportunities.

If you would like to recommend it on Digg.com it’s ok for me Icon below

China:

Hang Seng (18972)  Shanghai B (129)  USD/CNY (6,8320)

China is more than interesting – will the stock market mega rebound or go into a black hole ? Automobile sales is worth to watch in any country as it tells more about the health of the state than any speach from an official. The August carsales shrank 6,3% y/y to 629.000 vehicles so the September number to be released in the near future will be watched very closely. China is actually the second largest…