Get Markets Right

Dear Reader,

Very unfortunately I have a technical problem to get the comment fully posted on the blog. I am travelling for a few days, it apparently causes a few IT problems. The comments will be published Thursday.

All asset classes these days move as a function of risk aversion. The market is divided into two camps, one looking for investment opportunities and one believing that the markets still corrects and that the global problems aren’t over yet. Last week it was very clear that as soon as tensions went up, the Dollar traded down together with equities. The volumes (particular in the stock market) are low, so the true development is difficult to judge as short term speculators have a larger part of the summer market. Many real money managers and private investors have their well deserved holiday break, but will soon return to a financial world that isn’t too easy to handle. Some will return with…

Global macro view:

Commodities are correcting further, but everybody have realised that global demand is dropping like a stone so wherever you look, the downturn is evident. Some hopers say lower commodity prices helps corporate profits, might be says the bear, but PPI is up in the roof, and that surely diminish corporate profits. Should we worry about the geo political tensions between Russia and the Western countries ? Bad timing for the markets, but it’s not a real concern yet.

It’s not all only bleak and just for the bears as you can read below, but the timing is difficult. Explore and study the market so you are ready, but hold the cash on your account for a while…

The greenback went up and oil down, and that rescued the whole financial world including the investors. Such a sudden and happy end on a bear market sounds too good to be true, and it is.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the outlook here below. With my private view on the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, inflation and what to expect from the central banks.

Equities

USA:

Dow Jones (11782)  S&P 500 (1305)  Nasdaq Comp (2440)

It’s ironical that the only positive signs from US lately have been from the manufacturing export sector. Seriously helped by the lower Dollar, and now they see their currency much stronger within a short time. I respect that S&P 500…

Global macro view:

Last week gave us sluggish news from all over the world. In Europe, where in particular, retail sales and expectation indices highlighted the worrying situation. In the States the true downturn was confirmed with low and lower revised GDP numbers plus higher unemployment. More unnoticed came from Japan also bearish fundamental figures, and in China is the Communist Party honestly worried about growth. Oil is back in the roller coaster mood as a joker for the financial markets. Very clear that the world still is on the way down, but didn’t we have any good news at all? Maybe, small signs of the US manufacturing sector might improve a bit. It was shown in 2 indices, but…