The market activity will, as usual, be lower after the weekend until New Year but during the last days of this decade we have the chance to enjoy a few important numbers.

Here is what I am looking for the coming days:
From Japan, before 28th Dec the Dec business
conditions for small businesses is released. It’s almost a preliminary number, that alone makes it interesting though the survey itself is also worth to notice. Last month it was 43,0. Please note that the big business worsened in the period October to December due to MOF. Downside risk for Japan.

On Monday from Japan the Nov preliminary industrial production and the retail sales is published, interesting numbers from the second largest economy in the world.

In my view US offers one really important number the coming week. On Tuesday, the Dec consumer confidence will give us a hint about the very much watched US consumers. The average of economists go for 52,8, up from 49,5 last month. Most likely, but a higher number than 53,0 is needed to boost stock markets further.

Towards end of the week (maybe Saturday included) 2 UK organizations announces the house price developments in Dec. Nationwide first and then Halifax, a small increase in December is expected.

One could almost feel tempted to say, that China never sleeps so they announce the interesting NBS Manufacturing PMI 1st January, 55,2 last month with an increase expected again.

As mentioned will next week only offer low activity but stocks will follow the fundamental data (better than expected = rising markets and vice versa).

The currency market will be dominated by “end of year” adjustments without any clear trend. Next year the Dollar will move lower anyway.

Peter

Just to mention the positive Japanese stocks this morning. The banking sector went up as it seems likely that the tougher capital rules will be delayed. The Japanese banks will probably get 10 years to adopt the new rules. Short term, it of course helps the profitability in the banking sector and give some relief (also the reason for the delay I assume). One of the reasons to tighten the rules was to protect the investor, but to give a 10 years deadline is equal to cancel them. Within the next 10 we will have had another crisis again, but fewer banks than today would then need to care about the new rules. So, no reason to fill up your stock accounts with Japanese banks……

The Dec PMI’s from Europe this morning should keep us occupied for a moment while waiting on US. The market expects the readings to be a touch higher (PMI Manufacturing at 51,4 and service at 53,1). I could see the numbers slightly lower. If they are around the expected I do not see it as positive enough to help stocks today, so I go for a minus until US opens.

US will offer several really interesting data. The last days inflation has gained attention, fair enough, as especially food inflation is jumping (watch India and China). Right now I am not scared about inflation on a global perspective (more on that particularly in the New Year), but the market talks, so I am more alert. The headline inflation in November is expected to be +0,4%, that will be in focus with a clear upside risk due to food, a risk for stocks.

Fundamentally I regard housing starts as the true number to watch, the market expects 575k in November compared to 529k last month. It’s very important to see if the US housing is finding more stability. If so, I might need to adjust my skeptical picture of the world…..A good number will help stocks and vice versa.

Bernanke’s words tonight we will all listen very carefully to, but he will tell us that the world has improved a bit again. He might also hint a rate hike one day, but what else can he do – they are at zero. It’s priced in the market but could give a short term reaction. No doubt that the statement is interesting because this is the main focus in the market this week.

The Dollar has already reacted too much on this. But if we look at the trading volume, then it is low in a December trading that reminds me of the good old days where nobody touched a position if they could avoid it. EUR/USD will trade towards 1,4750 again the coming days.

Peter

The Greenback continues to be fundamental weak in several ways. This was also highlighted earlier in the week where USD had some upside momentum but EUR/USD never came lower than 1,4825. If this is the current “strong” level for the greenback, then there is a good basis for a move towards 1,5500. Especially the US housing data this week showed stronger than expected October data. The headlines are more impressive than reality due to the downwards revisions of erlier data, though still an improvement that surprise me a bit. It should have helped USD but confirms the negative momentum right now.

Very important is the rising activity among  hedge funds and other position takers. They now go short USD after the FOMC meeting signaled no rate hike in US within any foreseeable time. For some time I mentioned that the 1,4850 level seemed neutral, with low activity and fewer positions. This means that the move to the actual 1,5100 level by no way is large and the way higher is free. The carry trades (short USD against higher yielding currencies or gold) are growing and these positions have tight stop-losses, but I don’t think it will danger the current downturn for the Dollar.
No data the coming days, so it will be go by the flow.
USD/JPY is very close to 86,00 that I have been dreaming about for some time. No reason to fear intervention right know. Expect some comments from Europe, though without power.

EUR/USD

It is long time ago since I have seen EUR/USD trading in such tight range as it has for some time. When we have these situations some players tend to sell volatility too late, it also happens these days.

Some investors have bought “Double-no-touch” options with barriers at 1,3900 and 1,4500. It means that EUR/USD has to trade within the defined range until maturity. Betting that something will stay within a range is equal to sell volatility. The EUR/USD volatility has gone down for a long time so from a volatility perspective some are selling at the lows. It feels like the typical trades that some are done when the range is about to break. The trades can be so big that the position taker can and will protect the option, but I doubt this is the case.

I have been right on the EUR/USD development for some time, but partly because I am wrong on the stock market. In particular in Europe and US are currency traders happy to trade EUR/USD following the developments in stock markets, taking EUR/USD higher. In Far East the trading pattern has already changed to follow macro economic outlook, though after important economic numbers the tendency also is visible in European and US trading sessions.

When the focus shifts towards fundamentals, my opinion is that the uncontrolled debt situation in US will be a major concern. Another interesting fact is, that very many I speak with are not prepared for a lower greenback nor really believe in EUR/USD levels above 1,5000 again.

The only true argument for a growing USD appetite is the 10 year government bond yield spread that basically should support the Dollar. It’s just not in the cards yet, focus will be on the debt.

I go for 1,5000 this autumn.

EUR/GBP & GBP/USD

The Bank of England governor Mr. Mervyn King always has a surprise ace to play. Sterling has lately been sold off for a couple of reasons. It has turned out that the quantitative easing hasn’t shown any effect at all after 6 months. No surprise, you can just ask Bank of Japan about their experience form 1990s. The Bank of England has sent out £ 140 billion in the system but during the same time the commercial banks deposits at Bank of England went up from £ 31 bio to £ 152 bio.

The news alone was disappointing for some investors being long Sterling but Mr. King’s reaction fuelled the GBP sell off. He seriously considers the Swedish model with negative interest rates, where commercial banks are punished with -0,25 % in interest rate if they deposit money in the central bank.

To be long Sterling is more expensive so it is fair that GBP corrected lower, but it also highlight that the problems in UK are tougher to fix than hoped.

It also gives food for new thoughts as I was predicting an even stronger Sterling like towards 0,8000 in EUR/GBP terms. Concerning UK I had expected some signs where I could hang my hopeful hat on, but it’s hard to find. UK might be the first economy to prove that the recovery is longer and slower that we like.

Should EUR/GBP trade around 0,9000 again, though depending on the market situation, I still fancy Sterling for a fundamental move towards 0,8000 in EUR/GBP.

EUR/JPY & USD/JPY

The new Japanese government is covered in the Hot Topic on page 10, where I conclude that the coming government is very unlikely to intervene if Yen goes stronger. As the Japanese bond yields constantly are climbing higher, Japanese investors are more likely to keep their investments in Japan or even move them back from US. Before end of November the new governments FX policy will be tested seriously when USD/JPY trades lower on that background.

The fundamental economic data can in no way give any support for Yen, but investors in Far East and Japan see risks on the rise. Therefore they are going back to the safe heaven currency JPY. The capital based flows I currently regard as more important than moves based on fundamentals.

I go for 86,00 in USD/JPY.

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

I apologise for not having updated with comments the last 3 weeks but I had 1½ weeks holiday on 2 very nice hotel. Very unfortunate did the wifi not work. Then Easter arrivved……

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – Back in the risk aversion / appetite game again

Equities – A new recovery shape has been invented – the W shape recovery.

China – The Ox is strong

Central bank rates – What can they do? Print more money…..

Currency markets – Back in the risk aversion / appetite game again.

EUR/USD (1,3180): This time the FX comments are a bit shorter as it is mainly a correlation play with risk aversion / equities right now.

During my holiday the long entry idea at 1,3300 was reached and is still alive as the stop loss is at 1,3000. The range after was 1,3100 to 1,3600. I had expected EUR/USD to trade much closer to 1,4000 after Easter based on the buoyant stock market. Clearly didn’t materialise so far and EUR/USD looks toppish below 1,3600 right now. I keep the idea, but I still believe in renewed focus on problems in some CCE countries.

One interesting figure I noticed during my holiday comes from the shipping industry. The outstanding hedges executed by South Korean ship building companies amounts to USD 10 – 30 billion. All shipping companies would like to cancel the contracts with the ship yards, though difficult. How large a portion of the hedges that needs to be unwound is hard to say. For those with South Korean Won risk it’s very interesting to follow but even in EUR/USD terms it is interesting.

Target: Long from 1,3300 with stop loss 1,3000 and target 1,4000 (possible turnaround level).

  
EUR/GBP (0,8800) – GBP/USD (1,4975): The change in risk aversion towards higher risk appetite for everything of course supported Sterling seriously. It’s worth to note that the housing market have detected some small improvement signs the last 2 weeks, though no trend turnaround.

I don’t have so much to say right now as it is very much equity and general risk appetite related. It’s more interesting to read the equity part. Sterling will be supported for another week so I adjust the GBP/USD range higher but keep the EUR/GBP target as midterm target.

Targets: EUR/GBP  0,9500     GBP/USD range 1,4750 – 1,5250 .

EUR/JPY (131,05) – USD/JPY (99,40): The EUR/JPY range holds quite well and it looks to do so for another week.

As mentioned many times earlier should JPY drop like a stone based on the fundamentals, but it has not started yet despite the higher USD/JPY level. The move and current support is more based on the greenback that is firmer.

I keep an eye on long EUR/JPY positions in Far East. Later this month they could be closed out.

Like under Sterling, the equity markets and risk appetite are the impulses for Yen. Fundamentals are less important.

I keep the targets for the moment.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 128,00 – 133,00  USD/JPY 93,00 

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 5 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 5 entries from today are:

Currency markets – Finally reacting on different factors

Equities – Another bull go, backed by the US tax payer – PPIP it’s called this time….

China – Reorganizing the car industry

Hot Topic – EUR/USD – Did Fed start a new EUR/USD trend ?

Central bank rates – They did, quantitative easing from Fed…….

Currency markets – Finally reacting on different factors

EUR/USD (1,3550): This weeks “Hot Topic” is EUR/USD but the conclusion is here.

Short term the US housing data Monday to Wednesday might help the greenback and even the personal income (exp. -0,1%) and personal spending (exp. +0,2) could support. Funny enough, I have the feeling that if the PPIP news are well received it’s also dollar supportive. It explains the entry level at 1,3300 if I should take a position. As it is too early with the big investor depression about the huge US debt, the position will not be the fundamental one. Therefore I would choose a stop loss at 1,3000 and very likely an exit at 1,4000, maybe even a turnaround at that level.

The reason is, that when reality comes back to the market, then the Euro negative factors will dominate for a period. These are the CEE problems, Euro Zone growth deteriorating and the collapse of the Euro. The sell off will be 10%, starting just after Easter.

Target: Entry level 1,3300 with stop loss 1,3000 and target 1,4000 (possible turnaround level).

  
EUR/GBP (0,9360) – GBP/USD (1,4470): Last weeks unemployment data once more confirmed that the deterioration of the UK economy continues with no end in sight. Basically the target in EUR/GBP at 0,9500 was reached but I have the feeling, at that level are many sluggish news priced in. We will reach 0,9500 again but currently is Sterling lifted by the positive sentiment in stock markets. When 0,9500 is reached again it will be the median for some time.

One important figure is released on Thursday, the February retail sales (exp. -0,2%). I think it could be better than expected and also supportive for GBP.

GBP/USD will be supported by the downwards pressure on Dollar meaning the range will be moved upwards to trade around 1,4500.

Targets: EUR/GBP  0,9500     GBP/USD range 1,4250 – 1,4750 .

EUR/JPY (131,60) – USD/JPY (97,15): The Fed move last week hit my target of 100 to 102 in USD/JPY before the financial year end at 31^st March – it won’t happen now. I expect that some year end realisation of foreign assets (from a Japanese perspective) will be executed within the next week. It leads to a cap in USD/JPY combined with the general bearish USD sentiment.

Friday is the data day in Japan with the Tokyo March CPI (exp. +0,3%) and the February retail trade (exp.    -0,6%). Particularly the retail trade will be more than interesting, I would go for an even lower number.

EUR/JPY is supported by higher risk appetite. As some in Far East say, some of the riskier currencies are favoured like the Euro. That view will probably please Mr. Trichet, but it shows how investors are seeking towards the large currencies of the different regions, like Yen in Far East. With EUR/USD trading higher but USD/JPY lower, then EUR/JPY will trade around 130,50.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 128,00 – 133,00  USD/JPY 93,00 

Hot Topic – EUR/USD – Did Fed start a new EUR/USD trend ?

EUR/USD (1,2975): Last week I was waiting for the next hurricane, but it was a big surprise for me that Fed should be behind it. I have long argued that the market long term will judge the US debt very negative sending the greenback lower. Last week we got a feeling for it as the dollar index had the steepest weekly drop in 24 years. My problem is that it was a surprise and conflicts with my short term view on EUR/USD.

A Fed purchase of T-bonds as quantitative easing was the next step in Mr. Bernankes “helicopter speech”, where the global financial community showed “thumps down” by selling the greenback. The lower yield on US assets of course also drags down the Dollar. For those who might not recall the whole speech, I will just mention the 4^th and final step. It is that Fed buys foreign bonds like for example German bunds. As Fed only has very limited currency reserves they would need to sell their own currency to buy EUR. I had difficulties to imagine that Fed would announce to buy T-bonds at the current interest rate level, but the 4^th step is beyond my wildest imagination.

With the current general relief in several markets and the higher risk appetite the CEE concerns are down played right now. It also means that the downwards pressure on EUR from this concern has faded out. The prior recommended downwards play through FX options wont materialise right now, and the option premium is very unfortunately lost. Due to the Fed surprise, the EUR/USD sentiment has changed to “buy on dips”, but due to the surprise I have difficulties to fine tune it. I would say, that a dip is 1,3300, but as I trying to get a feeling again, it can be that the market is more bid than I expect – i.e. other participants are bid at higher levels than 1,3300.

The CEE related problems will return, when reality returns to the market. But other underlying forces are out there working as well. Should Fed one day decide to use the 4^th step as mentioned above, then EUR/USD will go straight up in 2,0000. It would as a side effect cause the explosion of the common Euro Zone currency within less than a month – it will work as an external chock that can’t be absorbed.

But the Euro will suffer from other internal factors that currently seem to be forgotten because the financial markets are in the happy mood. Friday, the German CDU politician Mr. Otto Bernhardt really gave us some colour with his wonderful comments. I think he gave some statements that he might did regret afterwards. Based on his position as Member of the Parliament and CDU’s speaker of fiscal policy, I would judge that he has some insight in internal reports and the work on EU level.

Mr. Bernhardt said that, ECB holds a rescue fund that can be activated within 24 hours to bail out Euro-in members, ECB later denied it (the help would come in form of loans Mr. Bernhardt said). He also believes that it is more likely that the rescue fund will be utilised than not. I that context he mentioned Ireland and Greece as the most possible to borrow from the fund (i.e. go bankrupt) – later denied by the whole European community. Mr. Bernhardt later tried to adjust his comments, by underlining that a Euro-in country can’t go bust because the Euro would collapse. That point is fair enough, but the detailed information he gave didn’t come from pure fantasy.

Monday China suggested to use a globally common reserve currency, the SDR. It’s another sign that they would like to diversify but it would be easier if the world agreed on that (many countries let their currency reserves reflect their respective trade weighted indices, so the idea might not fit all countries). Anyway the SDR basket is 44% USD, 11% JPY, 11% GBP and 44% EUR, meaning a significant need for Euro’s if the Chinese plan came together.

The risk is not a global agreement but that China starts to reduce USD holdings and to increase EUR holdings, they have advised to do so for about 1½ years ago.

As a counterweight we have European growth dropping like a stone. Just today I saw one changing the 2009 German GDP growth forecast to possibly -7% (yes, minus seven….). Then it doesn’t help that the German GDP will grow with 0,2% in 2010 – it’s below the statistical error…….

Ok, so what is the conclusion on all this and the according strategy?

Short term the US housing data Monday to Wednesday might help the greenback and even the personal income (exp. -0,1%) and personal spending (exp. +0,2) could support. Funny enough, I have the feeling that if the PPIP news are well received it’s also dollar supportive. It explains the entry level at 1,3300 if I should take a position. As it is too early with the big investor depression about the huge US debt, the position will not be the fundamental one. Therefore I would choose a stop loss at 1,3000 and very likely an exit at 1,4000, maybe even a turnaround at that level.

The reason is, that when reality comes back to the market then the Euro negative factors will dominate for a period. These are the CEE problems, Euro Zone growth deteriorating and the collapse of the Euro. The sell off will be 10%, starting just after Easter.

Target: Entry level 1,3300 with stop loss 1,3000 and target 1,4000 (possible turnaround level).

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – Feels like waiting for the next hurricane.

Equities – The bulls are having a party

China – Still joining the bull party

Central bank rates – One cut more from ECB in April and we are there.

Currency markets – Feels like waiting for the next hurricane.

EUR/USD (1,2975): Trading around 1,3000 is slightly above the current range and also a sign that my bearish view on stock markets suffers short term. It is still all about equities so it’s hard to come up with anything new regarding FX compared to the comments from the last weeks. I will keep the FX views fairly short for the same reason.

I have the long term view that the greenback will be hurt from the growing US debt and investor uncertainty. Short term, on the other hand Europe has the well known and serious credit exposure in CEE. The markets act as had the risks disappeared – sorry but they haven’t. Like in the prior weeks I go for a possible downwards move in EUR/USD linked to CEE, but use FX options as the right fundamental move is higher.

In that respect, I have just a small note on the new federal economic plan made by the new US government. When people want to sell something to you, then always read what is printed in small. The budgets are based on the assumption that the US economy only will shrink with 1,2% this year and that the average growth the following 4 years will be 4%. I don’t believe in that condition, and the risk is that investors start to have the same unpleasant thinking. The Chinese officials probably also noticed what was printed in small (please see the China comments).

Given the currently more positive equity market than expected I adjust the range from 1,2450 / 1,2950 to 1,2650 /  1,3150. Though, I don’t expect that a new trend has started.  

Target: Range 1,2650 – 1,3150.

  
EUR/GBP (0,9250) – GBP/USD (1,4050): I simply stay with the bearish view on Sterling. Many bad news are priced in as usual, though there is still downside room for GBP. It was remarkable that GBP only very temporary got support from the equity rally during last week. It confirms how offered Sterling is. The unemployment figures on Wednesday are important (exp. 6,5%).

Targets: EUR/GBP  0,9500     GBP/USD range 1,3750 – 1,4250 .

EUR/JPY (127,40) – USD/JPY (98,20): Moving closer towards year end also means sideways to higher USD/JPY in my world, as it would be suitable for accounting reasons. No good news out of Japan which should argue for a fundamental sell off in JPY but I don’t think that trend has started yet. The Bank of Japan report on Wednesday certainly is worth to watch. They can’t tell any good stories, but more about how bad they think it is (they can give the report a bias, but that was mainly a problem during the prior governors period of service).

Targets: EUR/JPY range 125,00 – 130,00  USD/JPY 100,00 followed by 102.

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

The week has been extremly busy and then I caused some technical problems – all in all it gave some days delay with I apologise for. Probably also causing some text problems this week, not always so easy J

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – The Greenback is the key again

Equities – Realistic risk conversations would help the market.

China – Wen thinks its ok, or does he?

Central bank rates – they give it another try at ECB……

Currency markets – Escaping everything.

Non major currencies

This week I start with a thought in general regarding a couple of non major currencies. The very significant

drop in some currencies like Swedish Crowns or Polish Zlothy now leads to growing sign of goods arbitrage.

It now pays of for private household to spend time and transportation costs to shop in these countries. If you

remember back when the ERM blew up in the 90’s and the Italian Lira dropped like a stone, we had the same

picture with private households importing everything from Italy.

Currencies like SEK and PLN might be able to drop another 10%, but it starts to seem excessive. Should it

be excessive, then the only two short term ways to compensate will be high inflation or a counter reaction in

the market. The high inflation within short term is hard to imagine – don’t worry, long term it will come.

EUR/USD (1,2750): Given the very large swings in other asset classes the very tight range in EUR/USD is

pretty amazing. The problem is of course where to escape to. Had the Chinese Yuan been free floating, then

we all had flocked into Yuan. It would much faster smoothen out the global trade frictions with a quicker

relief in USA and Europe. That one doesn’t work and with non Japanese investors leaving Japanese stocks,

the Euro and the greenback are the only 2 opportunities left.

The Dollar index reached a new high last week but EUR/USD stayed within the range. It shows some

firmness for Euro as well and for sure confirms one thing. Had EUR been offered, then EUR/USD would

have been much lower due to the current USD strength.

Lately the USD strength has been discussed. Partly it is caused by the same picture like last autumn as hedge

funds needs Dollars to repay investors in the ongoing asset reduction process. Also the USD funding need

from banks is growing, resulting in demand for the greenback as well.

Long term I still see the American enormous debt supply as a very negative factor for Dollars. As mentioned

last week, the CEE crisis is a risk for Euro mid term. These days it’s fairly quiet regarding the crisis in CEE,

but it is my concern that it will return very forceful. As suggested last week, this includes the risk for a short

term sell off in EUR/USD. The best way to participate is through options with short maturity, as bear

position is against the coming fundamental trend in EUR/USD (we have ideas on stock).

I only watch one number this week, the US retail sales on Thursday (exp. -0,5%). I could easily be slightly

better than expected.

I keep the range.

Target: Range 1,2450 – 1,2950.

 
EUR/GBP (0,9210) – GBP/USD (1,3750): Reached the 0,9000 target in EUR/GBP again and the very low

end of the range for GBP/USD.

It’s nothing new when I say, that everything in UK just looks sluggish and it is very impressive that all

economic numbers still comes out worse than expected. It confirms the ongoing “more soft than expected”

situation.

Some talk among fixed income people that UK will limit the gilt offerings. It’s to force investors to buy EUR

papers instead in the attempt to do everything to force Sterling lower. Living the famous “helicopter speech”

from Mr. Bernanke in full (more explanation if you wish ).

I keep the second target at 0,9500 in EUR/GBP and lower the GBP/USD range in to 1,3500 – 1,4000.

Targets: EUR/GBP 0,9000 followed by 0,9500 GBP/USD range 1,3750 – 1,4250 .

EUR/JPY (124,75) – USD/JPY (99,60): EUR/JPY in the very upper end of the range and USD/JPY moving

towards the first target at 100,00.

As mentioned above are non Japanese investors leaving Japanese stocks since some time. The JPY sell off is

more than justified by the fundamental data as they are nothing less than horrible. And, by the way, there is

no improvement in sight. I argue that he capital flows are behind the move (i.e. it’s not a new long term

fundamental based trend that has started) and warmly welcomed by the Japanese government plus

corporations.

I still go for USD/JPY levels above 100,00 at the Japanese financial year end this month (window dressing).

The EUR/JPY range is moved from 1,2000 – 1,2500 to 1,2375 – 1,2875. I keep the USD/JPY target.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 120,00 – 125,00 USD/JPY 100,00 followed by 102.

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – The Greenback is the key again

Equities – Realistic risk conversations would help the market.

China – Wen thinks its ok, or does he?

Central bank rates – they give it another try at ECB……

Currency markets – The Greenback is the key again

EUR/USD (1,2600): Today (Monday) the Dollar index reached it’s 3 years high. It corresponds extreme well with the trading pattern during the large equity sell off in October/November last year. Partly flight to quality and some hot money from China find their way to the greenback, but as the stock markets are setting new lows, investors are also forced to exit hedge funds. Hedge funds primarily are USD based so they need USD cash to pay out.

As mentioned the last couple of weeks, one would expect the Central- and Eastern European crisis to hit the Euro. That is still a risk (or opportunity) and this risk might even grow during the next 2 weeks. Though, had the Euro been trading in an offered environment, then EUR/USD would have dropped to 1,1500 by  now.

The CEE crisis will grow further, that’s why I see an increasing downside risk in EUR/USD, but it more feels like a “knee-jerk” reaction if it comes. It will all be about to find an option structure that could fit the expectations (we have them in stock). If I believed in new lower levels for good I would recommend to go short in a cash position.

ECB’s 50 basis point rate cut on Thursday is priced in the market, but could lead to some EUR selling from Far East, but not significant in the short term.

The Beige Book from US on Wednesday I watch, I keep an eye on the US ADP employment change on Wednesday (exp. -620k) as a hint about the figure of the week on Friday. The US February labour market data will be serious exciting (exp. 7,9% / -625k). Regarding the nonfarm payrolls we have a $2 bet among the colleagues every month. Last month I put my $2 at -700k, I do the same this time…..

I lower the range to 124,50 – 129,50 for the week.

Target: Range 1,2450 – 1,2950.

  
EUR/GBP (0,8955) – GBP/USD (1,4050): I simply continue to see serious and very big problems for UK. It is difficult to say the economic depression is priced in because we don’t how deep it will be. As a consequence it might be that the FX market reacts on economic numbers or maybe not. Finally I see EUR/GBP towards 0,9500 and GBP/USD trading towards the downside of the target range. All based on the fundamental economic contractive development.

I keep the targets.

Targets: EUR/GBP 0,9000 followed by 0,9500     GBP/USD range 1,3750 – 1,4250 .

EUR/JPY (122,40) – USD/JPY (97,60): To be honest I missed the current uptrend particularly in USD/JPY. I thought the ongoing bearish stock market would be enough to support Yen until coming closer to the Japanese financial year end. On the contrary do investors simply leave Japanese investments, also in line with the hedge fund activity described under the EUR/USD comments.

The extreme sluggish economic data from Japan basically argues for a much lower JPY, but from what I see is it more capital movements than new short JPY positions.

It seems to continue for some time so 100 in USD/JPY is the new target most likely followed by 102. EUR/JPY will trade in a range around 122,50.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 120,00 – 125,00  USD/JPY 100,00 followed by 102.

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – Event risks are rising

Equities – It feels heavy……

China – So far the Ox turned out to be a bull.

Central bank rates – The next in line is ECB

Currency markets – Event risks are rising

EUR/USD (1,2800): The very serious risks are now getting more clear for market participants. The discussion about the survival of the Euro that I touched briefly last week will grow. But the discussion itself will not lead to the Euro blow up, that will economic realities take care of later on.

2 event-like situations will soon take very much attention, they are working in opposite directions so it’s important to judge the timing. The implications of the Central and Eastern European severe economic downturn, and their totally foreign debt overloaded private sectors becomes reality this year.

The other risk I have mentioned a couple of times, is the appetite for US Treasuries, or more correct the missing appetite for those papers one day. No doubt that Fed will be forced to intervene soon, that action alone will hurt the greenback. This could happen within a couple of months. The long term effect comes when investors don’t reinvest in US Treasuries.

Near term, including this week, the Central and Eastern European worry will pressure the Euro, though not start a new trend. I lower this weeks range to 1,2550 – 1,3050 from 1,2750 – 1,3250. Some numbers during the week, where Philly Fed on Thursday (exp. -25,0) might move the Dollar a bit.

Not to scare anyone, but our friends were on different wires saying the following:

Mr. Trichet said “We have to prepare for exceptional situations, I would not exclude anything or pre commit to anything”.

Mr. Bean from Bank of England said “Global economy in sharp, synchronized downturn”.

Mr. Almunia form the EU Commission said “Economic situation is difficult, countries starting to suffer social tension”.

As mentioned, it is not to scare, but more underline the humble view that serious risk management and clear views on the market based on insight and experience is needed – fairly difficult, but possible to be honest.

We can’t hide from risk, but be well prepared to handle it.

Target: Range 1,2750 – 1,3250.

  
EUR/GBP (0,8955) – GBP/USD (1,4310): Very brief on Sterling. EUR/GBP jumped to 0,9000 last week after Mr. Kings speech. I didn’t thought that the report would have that impact on the market to be honest.

I keep the targets as the report from Bank of England just shows how bad it is in UK – lower Sterling.

Targets: EUR/GBP 0,9000 followed by 0,9500     GBP/USD range 1,3750 – 1,4250 .

EUR/JPY (117,40) – USD/JPY (91,60): Also fairly short on Yen as capital flows still decide everything regardless of how bad fundamental economic data we get. The Q4 GDP number from Monday morning showed how difficult the situation is (worse than expected). More will come out this week where the Bank of Japan policy meeting Thursday is the most important. Same rate of course but they always comment afterwards.

I keep the targets as I expect equities to remain under pressure.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 114,00 – 120,00  USD/JPY 88,00. Expect intervention.

Currency markets – Getting more interesting again.

EUR/USD (1,3040): EUR/USD stayed fine within the range last week and I suggest another week with range trading in EUR/USD, though slightly upwards adjusted. Regardless of range trading this week, then the currency market is getting more interesting.

Capital flows still dominate the swings, but with big fundamental happenings like the US unemployment data last Friday and growing concern about the Euro’s survival new trends will start (when the markets decides which is the biggest risk – mid term it’s still the upside in EUR/USD that I bet on).

The survival of the Euro I will save for a “Hot Topic” comment when time is right. In the meantime, in this weeks edition of The Economist a good article about the future of the Euro is published. They conclude that there is no alternative to the common unit – currently they are right, but I am not sure that the “man in the street” in some Euro countries will agree much longer.

2 data highlights this week are the US Jan retail sales on Thursday (exp. -0,4%) and the Euro Zone GDP for 4^th quarter (exp. -1,8% q/q). Further I follow the testimony from Mr. Bernanke Tuesday and also the US 10 year Treasury auction – actually pretty important.

I adjust the range from 1,2650 / 1,3250 to 1,2750 / 1,3350. 

Target: Range 1,2750 – 1,3250.

  
EUR/GBP (0,8760) – GBP/USD (1,4910): I am still totally wrong on GBP, which at least fits with the false view on equities last week as well.

No doubt that Sterling profits from growing risk appetite. As mentioned in the comments on the stock market are the markets in a current bull mood that also supports GBP.

Not much on economic data this week, so the Sterling swings will more be a function of capital flows i.e. mainly changes in risk appetite and stock markets.

I still go for the upside in EUR/GBP but need to lower the current target to 0,9000. GBP/USD I expect to trade around the current 1,4900 level.

Targets: EUR/GBP 0,9000 followed by 0,9500     GBP/USD range 1,3750 – 1,4250 .

EUR/JPY (119,40) – USD/JPY (91,40): Enough reasons to sell JPY during the last 5 – 6 trading days, so the good question is what the key driver is.

The Japanese equity market didn’t really perform like rest of the world and European based plus some Mid East investors actually sold JPY. Looks like a portfolio shift. Then we had the usual growing risk appetite leading to a JPY sell off.

The fundamentals were truly bad, confirmed Monday morning by the Machinery orders for December. In addition to all this a larger purchase from a single account went through Friday/Monday, but a one off.

The fundamentals will send JPY lower at a certain time, but not yet. I still argue that capital flows are the JPY driver right now. Being bearish equities makes me argue for a renewed test of the downside in EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 114,00 – 120,00  USD/JPY 88,00. Expect intervention.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – A bagful of mixed sweets this week.

Equities – Which late night show are you watching ?

China – So far China mainland is upbeat.

Central bank rates – Another cut to save the world this week……

Currency markets – A bagful of mixed sweets this week.

EUR/USD (1,2810): Heavy stuff weights on Euro. Some Euro Zone countries fundamentals deteriorate pretty fast now. It apparently leads to speculation among Far East market participants about an ECB rate cut in mid February, though that would be against the guidance from Mr. Trichet, so I doubt that one.

Equities has changed the sentiment again which already sent EUR/JPY somewhat lower, taking EUR/USD down as well. This pressure will continue during the week.

Last week I thought 1,3450 would be the top but it turned out to be 1,3350. This week it feels that the top and range will be even lower trading at 1,2650 – 1,3250. Long term the Greenback will come under renewed pressure due to an oversupply of US debt and Dollars, but that’s another story.

I see the US labour market data on Friday (exp.-500 / 7,5%) as the true heavyweight numbers this week. Until then, especially the stock markets once more will dominate EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

Target: Range 1,2650 – 1,3250.

  
EUR/GBP (0,9035) – GBP/USD (1,4180): Sterling I got totally wrong as GBP went much stronger by end of last week.

Some global UK based corporations was bought pretty well plus the financial stock rally also supported the capital flow into UK.

Furthermore caused some serious model adjustments buy back of GBP. I expect both factors to reverse into sterling selling again.

Some UK PMI numbers will be released during the week but the true number to watch is the Dec. industrial production on Friday (exp. -7,9% y/y). The expectations are very low, but they could come out even worse…

The Bank of England rate cut down to 1,00% on Thursday is priced in the market.

I argue that EUR/GBP will jump back up in the 0,9300 – 0,9700 range, where GBP/USD will trade in the low end of the 1,3750 – 1,4250 range.

Targets: EUR/GBP range 0,9300 – 0,9700 followed by 1,0000     GBP/USD range 1,3750 – 1,4250 .

EUR/JPY (115,25) – USD/JPY (89,90): ok, it’s all about equities as we have seen so many times before.

The fundamental data from Japan is incredibly weak, with rumours of a double digit negative GDP growth in Q4. It would of course have sent any currency lower if it hasn’t been for the equity linked flows.

It’s hard to say anything else. On Friday, the leading economic index for Dec is worth to keep an eye on (exp. 79,0) but not a true market mover.

It’s too early to consider a long term short bet in JPY as the above factors still are working in the other direction.

EUR/JPY is now trading in the very low end of last weeks expected range, so with the above outlook I will lower the range from 115,00 – 121,00 to 112,00 – 118,00. USD/JPY I leave unchanged.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 112,00 – 118,00  USD/JPY 88,00. Expect intervention.

Currency markets – Capital flows decides once again……

EUR/USD (1,3140): Like last week it’s more about risk aversion and swings in equity markets than anything else. EUR/JPY plays a good role in this game, where the large sell off did sent EUR/USD below the expected 1,3000 – 1,3500 range last week. I keep the same range as I expect stocks to trade more in the positive territory (please read the equity part).

Like for equities, this coming Friday’s US GDP number (exp. -5,0%).will decide if EUR/USD closes the week up or down.

The moves in EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY will also mean a great deal this week. EUR/GBP has rebounded but the trend is higher, and with slightly upwards moving stocks EUR/JPY should trade higher as well. It speaks for a EUR/USD move towards 1,3450 before 14.30 CET Friday.

Target: Range 1,3000 – 1,3500.

 
EUR/GBP (0,9420) – GBP/USD (1,3925): Sterling remains to be the wild one……EUR/GBP is back in the middle of the 0,9300 – 0,9700 range but GBP/USD went south of the expected range.

The EUR/GBP range I keep as it is, also the view that we will reach 1,0000 but we need more bad fundamental data to trigger the move. This week doesn’t offer this sort of data and another sell off in equities is not to expect right now either.

A fair discussion is if the market will be hit by intervention if EUR/GBP reaches 1,0000 ? We are close to that level but haven’t heard any real warnings from Bank of England. Britain welcomes the low Sterling as a monetary impulse so it’s hard to say how much political will there is to intervene. We are talking about 2 currencies within the Euro Zone. Meaning it’s highly sensible and both parties need to agree, and probably coordinate, on the action. It doesn’t seem likely right now. If the market panics above 1,0000 we will have verbal intervention from Bank of England.

GBP/USD will trade on the weak side during the week but around 1,4000 giving a range of 1,3750 – 1,4250.

Targets: EUR/GBP range 0,9300 – 0,9700 followed by 1,0000     GBP/USD range 1,4300 – 1,4700 .

EUR/JPY (117,50) – USD/JPY (89,40): USD/JPY will stay in the positive trend where higher equities supports USD/JPY higher and vice versa. Though, fundamentals also will move JPY this week.

The December retail sales on Thursday (exp. -0,4%) is important but Friday we have a whole bunch of December numbers. I regard the jobless rate (4,1%), household spending (exp. -3,6%) and industrial production (-9,0%) as very important – all of them. Thursday and Friday morning is the time for JPY followed by the US GDP data on Friday afternoon – it will be an exciting day.

Despite EUR/JPY is fairly volatile I keep the range from last week. The USD/JPY target at 88,00 was reached. I stay with that target as well. Looking ahead USD/JPY will be sold off again after this week.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 115,00 – 121,00  USD/JPY 88,00. Expect intervention.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – Capital flows are gaining in importance again……

Equities – Is the earning season also a hurricane season ?

China – the credit growth in December a true credit growth ?

Central bank rates – Still pointing lower……….

Currency markets – Capital flows are gaining in importance again……

EUR/USD (1,3140): With the currency market being dominated by capital flows, and in particular swings in stock markets, then my fundamental USD bearish view suffers again.

When I am right on the stock markets (down) then EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF also follows lower and the greenback is bid (I am watching the hedge funds again, it all feels like September to November last year).

With only a few fundamental data out this week its better to read the stock market comments to get a clue. They are as usual bearish so it forces me to lower the 1,3250 / 1,3750 trading range for EUR/USD down to 1,3000 / 1,3500. Due to the very steep economic downturn in US and the following public debt bubble I remain long term bearish regarding the Dollar.

The few economic data this week are the US NAHB Housing Market Index on Wednesday (exp 9) and the Euro Zone Jan Service PMI on Friday (exp 41,7). Not true market movers, so the corporate earning reports are very much in focus.

Target: Range 1,3000 – 1,3500.

 
EUR/GBP (0,9090) – GBP/USD (1,4460): Despite some bought Sterling last during last week I keep the view that EUR/GBP will move back to the 0,9300 / 0,9700 range followed by 1,0000. GBP/USD is back in the 1,4300 / 1,4700 range but it should move even lower.

The new banking rescue package in UK shows how bad the situation is, the economy is so dominated of deteriorating assets and debt that remains unpaid that it seems endless.

The public debt now turns towards unknown highs as the government might be willing to enter what seems like unlimited risk to save the banking system.

I see it very bleak and remain bearish Sterling.

Targets: EUR/GBP range 0,9300 – 0,9700 followed by 1,0000     GBP/USD range 1,4300 – 1,4700 .

EUR/JPY (118,70) – USD/JPY (90,60): Like mentioned under the EUR/USD part it will be much about equities this week.

Of economic data, there is one semi important for the market this week. On Friday the Nov all industry activity index is released (exp -2,2%) but it’s for November and all November numbers around the globe were bad, so not a surprise.

Interesting was the rebound in EUR/JPY last week, but with equities coming lower, EUR/USD with downwards bias and USD/JPY to test the lows again I think the market will test the downside in EUR/JPY as well. Like above, it’s very much about stocks this week.

I keep the USD/JPY target but lower the EUR/JPY range from 117,00 / 125,00 to 115,00 / 121,00.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 115,00 – 121,00  USD/JPY 88,00. Expect intervention.

Currency markets – different currencies, different factors to watch…..

EUR/USD (1,3350): The greenback is still fundamental weak, but EUR got hammered with the sudden sentiment change regarding ECB on Thursday. A 50 basis point cut is now fully priced in EUR/USD. If ECB don’t cut or choose something else than 50 basis points I think it will be negative for EUR, regardless what ECB will choose instead of 50 basis points.

I continue to argue that the market mainly reacts to fundamentals making the Dec. US retail sales on Wednesday as very important this week (exp. -1,4% ex. autos). The Dollar will correlate positive with the number.

With the FX market following fundamentals the US Beige Book Wednesday evening is a market mover as well, and to some extend the Jan. Philly Fed on Thursday (exp. -35,0).

With the underlying weakness in Dollar I prefer the upside in EUR/USD but within a range. Though I need to adjust last weeks range from 1,3500 – 1,4000 to 1,3250 – 1,3750 followed by higher levels the coming weeks.

Target: Range 1,3250 – 1,3750.

 
EUR/GBP (0,8980) – GBP/USD (1,4855): I have since many years not heard a finance minister speak so negative about the domestic economy as in UK lately. At the same time the UK base rate was cut to a 315 year low. One at least can say its historical times…….

Sterling truly was sold down during last autumn and towards the year end, but I think it will be sold off again.

There will only be a few economic numbers released during the week, so the domestic situation and even some spill over from the stock market will dominate Sterling.

I go for a move back into the ranges suggested last week.

Targets: EUR/GBP range 0,9300 – 0,9700     GBP/USD range 1,4300 – 1,4700 .

EUR/JPY (118,90) – USD/JPY (89,10): USD is coming nicely down and I still expect Bank of Japan to intervene somewhere below the pain level at 90,00. I am surprised that EUR/JPY is so close to 118,00. It is of course due to the general sell off in EUR but we are back in serious and important correlation with the negative equity market.

I expect the equity market to be a main mover for EUR/JPY, where USD/JPY moves the Japanese equity market – leading to downwards acceleration.

The Nov. machine orders on Thursday (exp. -8,0%) are normally very import, but we all expect a bad number and the nominal number is so large that big swings doesn’t surprise.

USD/JPY will reach 88,00. EUR/JPY I would like to be long but it’s also a function of EUR in general and equity markets. A long EUR/JPY position is more difficult this week, maybe next week.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 117,00 – 125,00  USD/JPY 88,00. Expect intervention.

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – Fundamentals will continue to work……
Equities – 2009 will be a limbo dance – how low can you go?………

China – many hope that the year of the Ox will be better.

Central bank rates – Cutting as much as possible, and then what?

Currency markets – Fundamentals will continue to work……

EUR/USD (1,3580): EUR/USD was trading 1,3650 when I wrote the last market comments on 15^th Dec with a move to 1,4500 in between. When I started on the comments Sunday, EUR/USD was expected to be around 1,4000 and now at 1,3580. It’s easy to conclude that the illiquidity still is dominating and the main reason behind the swings since mid December. It is the case in my view. Some large tickets went through but a lack of risk takers and risk appetite caused the very high volatility.

It reminds me about the FX market for 16 – 20 years back where risk books simply closed down during December and no one were willing to take new positions despite very attractive levels. This time, banks couldn’t allow themselves to loose money by being a nice illiquidity provider.

During this week people start to return to their risk and trading books. I am convinced that there is risk appetite out there, so the only question is what risk takers will fancy? Carry trades or fundamental trades?

In case of high risk appetite position takers will enter carry trades. I unfortunately think that fundamentals very soon will overshadow everything.

During the last 2 weeks it was an endless row of bad numbers out of US, the public debt obligations will be sky high and even the new rescue package suggested by Mr. Obama is priced in.

The pressure on the greenback will continue but due to better market liquidity the swings will be more normal within a 1,3500 -1,4000 range this week.

The labour market data on Friday is a true highlight of the week (expected 6,9% and -481k). The Dollar will correlate positive to the numbers (i.e. good numbers are positive for USD and vice versa).      

Target: Range 1,3500 – 1,4000.

 
EUR/GBP (0,9350) – GBP/USD (1,4500): Certainly a wild Christmas season for Sterling with the targets at 0,9500 and 1,4650 reached.

Attention will be on Bank of England this coming Thursday, where the market expects a rate cut of 50 basis points. They could surprise with 100 basis points, though most likely is 50 this week followed by another 50 in February.

Fundamentals continues to argue for a lower Sterling. I think EUR/GBP will trade around 0,9500 +/- 2 big figures. The same for GBP/USD trading around 1,4500.

Targets: EUR/GBP range 0,9300 – 0,9700     GBP/USD range 1,4300 – 1,4700 .

EUR/JPY (124,00) – USD/JPY (90,75): Unusual stable in JPY during Christmas and New Year.

The low around 118,00 we touched 3 times during the last 3 – 4 months seems very solid now. It will be hard to crack unless USD/JPY is sold extremely off as mentioned before Christmas.

90,00 continues to be a pain level for Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance. I still believe in renewed tests of that level and most likely followed by intervention by Bank of Japan if the selling pressure gets too big.

This view is based on capital flows and not fundamentals. When fundamentals get the lead regarding JPY we will explore a nice move down in JPY, but not yet.

The swings in equities will dominate the JPY movements this week.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 125,00 – 130,00  USD/JPY swings around 90,00. Expect intervention.

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

Currency markets – Fundamentals starts to work……

EUR/USD (1,3650): Most attention this week will be on Fed Tuesday but not in focus as the last couple of times. A rate cut of 50 basis points is priced in already with a possibility of 75 basis points, but regardless of the cut it of course doesn’t draw the same attention as this will be the last or the second last rate cut. So it might be fair that fundamentals gain in importance as the markets are always searching for new clues.

EUR/USD broke 1,3000 three trading days later than expected in the Weekly from 1^st December. The move was partly linked to developments in the stock markets but fundamentals all of a sudden did send the greenback lower.

What is the most important factor then, the smart person naturally asks? Good question, as interest rates are also back in the game. As mentioned in the last Weekly is EUR the only remaining high yielder among the major currencies. It has become even more clear after the latest comments from ECB members where they indicate a slow pace in rate cuts now.

That the stock markets are less important for the Dollar is due to less investor outflow from hedge funds. It means less need to sell equities and generate USD cash, so other forces like fundamentals and short term interest differentials have some importance again. If I should try to put a number on the importance of the 3 factors, then I would say stock markets explains 50% of the Dollar moves (down from 85%+), fundamentals are around 35% and short term interest rates 15%.

Public debt and similar obligations (like bank guarantees) I regard as a fundamental risk. This is growing and so is the concern about the rising debt – in the nearest future the exploding US Government obligation will be the biggest concern regarding public debt globally.

Two other US numbers are actually interesting during this week. Housing starts on Tuesday (expected 730k) and Philly Fed on Thursday (expected -40,0). The EUR/USD reaction will follow the numbers i.e. good numbers send EUR/USD lower and vice versa.

Some will of course watch the German IFO on Thursday (expected 84,0) but it should not move the market.

The target at 1,3000 and the next at 1,3250 was reached. Sentiment is Dollar bearish right now, so 1,3800 is the next step followed by a 1,3300 – 1,3800 range.

Target: 1,3800 followed by range 1,3300 – 1,3800.

 
EUR/GBP (0,8935) – GBP/USD (1,5300): The EUR/GBP range 0,8100 – 0,8600 surely didn’t hold as EUR is fairly bid and fundamentals plus short term interest rates dominates Sterling these days.

As usual one can’t find anything positive to say about the British economy, where the housing market still is the biggest concern. It looks like the private household debt (particularly related to real estate) will weight seriously for a long time to come.

Like mentioned above are short term rates starting to play a role again where the surprisingly large cuts from Bank of England simply sends Sterling lower. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the base rate is lowered almost to zero. GBP will very suddenly get a new life as funding currency…….

On Wednesday Bank of England releases minutes from the MPC meeting, that will be interesting reading. The fast and large rate cuts give reason to believe that the people at Bank of England are very worried about the outlook.

Sterling might be oversold short term but the reality will send GBP lower.

Targets: EUR/GBP 0,9500     GBP/USD 1,4650.

EUR/JPY (124,00) – USD/JPY (90,75): The trading pattern in Yen confirms that not only equities decides the currency market these days. The targets at 118,50 in EUR/JPY was reached for the 3^rd time and for the first time at 90,00 in USD/JPY.

118,50 will only be reached again if USD/JPY drops well below 90,00 or if equities turns towards the lows.

Equities will be sold off again but depending on where JPY is trading when it happens, levels below 118,50 could trade again, though I am not so convinced.

So far Bank of Japan stayed away from intervening in the currency market, but it will come. They of course used verbal intervention already but that was to expect. Bank of Japan will be intervening alone, which is a reason why they try to wait as long as possible.

I still think that 90,00 is the pain level.

Macro economic the picture is like usual extremely bleak. The Tankan report from Monday morning just once more confirmed it with a reading of -24 against -3 last. A number of -23 were expected, so one could argue that it was priced in the market. Maybe, but it’s very difficult to price the full effect in as the economy is dropping to a new absolute level with a new demand situation at a much lower level.

The target was reached but USD/JPY will continue to test the downside followed by intervention giving some wild swings. EUR/JPY will be wild as well due to intervention, but I argue for an underlying 119,00 – 126,00 range.

Targets: EUR/JPY range 119,00 – 126,00  USD/JPY swings around 90,00. Expect intervention.

Currency markets – Mr. Trichet will cut but EUR is still a high yielder among G7.

EUR/USD (1,2640): This week the full attention is on ECB on Thursday and the US labour market data Friday. My best guess is that the market expects a 75 basis points rate cut from ECB on Thursday. I think it’s a fair guess where 100 basis points is more likely than 50 basis points if they consider anything else than 75 basis points. The comments will, as usual, be very interesting but hardly anything but sluggish. This might be expected but I think it will move the market anyway – lower within the current range. Mid term it will have an effect that the EUR rate is a high yielding currency among the major currencies when investors start to search for some return on the cash positions.

The US labour market data is the event of the week. Of course it will be a bad figure, we all know that (expected -325k / 6,8%), but fundamentally it is difficult to buy the greenback on the back of these numbers. The worry about the steepness of the US downturn will return. This combined with more people realising a coming problem from the fast growing US public deficit finally leads to a lower Dollar – have a look at the Treasury credit default swap, it widens every day…..

In the first part of the week I expect the current 1,2400 – 1,2900 range to hold, but the EUR/USD New York close on Friday is above 1,3000 going towards 1,3250.

Target: Range 1,2400 – 1,2900 followed by 1,3250.  

 
EUR/GBP (0,8315) – GBP/USD (1,5200): The 0,8250 target in EUR/GBP was reached followed by a nice rebound. I fear that the positive GBP sentiment mainly was based on the rising equity market last week. If that is the case I go for a offered Sterling sentiment this week. The big day is on Thursday where Bank of England will cut rates with 50 – 75 basis points, where 75 basis points is priced in the market. I actually think that the market reaction will be limited confirming that Sterling will enter a range for rest of this year.

The short term move will be to 0,8450 in EUR/GBP but I go for a 0,8100 – 0,8600 range for the rest of this year. Volatilities are high, but in my view it’s more a sign of usual risk takers are unwilling to take new risk than expectations about higher volatility in the underlying cash market. For those who have some risk appetite left, selling volatility with maturity before year end is an option. GBP/USD will move towards 1,5500.

Targets: EUR/GBP short term 0,8450, range 0,8100 – 0,8600 – GBP/USD 1,5500.

EUR/JPY (118,25) – USD/JPY (93,75): When I started on these comments during the weekend, EUR/JPY I judged EUR/JPY to be around 120,75. The views behind the comment are the same.

How many bad news can a market absorb? I don’t know, but Yen should have been beaten up. It’s only due to the well known capital flows that JPY is supported. The bad news out of Japan simply accelerates in speed. Japan is very export dependent so it’s natural Japan is hurt even more than the other major countries. As written under the equity part I continue to be bearish on the stock market which could force further JPY purchase leading to the target in EUR/JPY at 118,50 for the 3rd time. As I go for a stronger EUR, the 118,50 level could be a good entry point for a mid term long EUR/JPY position depending on how the market looks like if the level is reached. USD/JPY trades towards 90,00 followed by intervention from Bank of Japan, this will support the EUR/JPY position further.

Targets: EUR/JPY 118,50 – USD/JPY 90,00.
Equities – What a rebound but based on a partly state owned and weak banking sector…….

Nikkei 225 (8.397)  Topix (827)  Dax (4.570)  FTSE 100 (4.226) Dow Jones (8.829)  S&P 500 (896) Nasdaq Comp (1.536)  

Honestly, the rebound last week of course made me think, anything else wouldn’t be serious.

Last weeks rebound was significant but banks were in the lead. Some very respectable people in the market say that they buy shares in the banks where governments participate because it’s unlikely these banks will go bankrupt. I respect and even agree in that view. But that the banks have a major shareholder called “The State” doesn’t guarantee against bad business – on the contrary. The sector is reducing business globally, many can not pay dividends and more losses will come due to the global recession. I would avoid investing in this sector and I think some had, or will have, the same thoughts – pointing lower again.

The November car sales numbers released from Japan and Spain this Monday morning shows even worse drops than in October. Very symptomatic for the global demand that only will be helped slightly by some Christmas shoppers. That’s over in 3 weeks time, and I fear that Q1 will be ice cold.

The rate cuts from Bank of England and ECB on Thursday are priced in the market. The big event in the stock market is also the labour market data on Friday (expected -325k / 6,8%). Very bad numbers are expected, where some would claim that a “not as bad number as expected” will lift shares. Maybe, but I just have difficulties to believe that investors are happy to buy stocks with ongoing worsening macro economic data.

One thing I noticed, is that the lows in November in US and Europe were lower than the lows in October. But in Japan and Hong Kong the lows in November were above the lows in October. Maybe just a coincidence, but the turnaround will happen in Far East first when it happens.

My expectation is lower share prices in general by the end of this week.

I have adjusted the targets for Dow Jones and Nasdaq Comp accordingly to the new S & P 500 target at 656.

Targets: Nikkei 225 6.683  Topix 697  DAX 3.906  FTSE 100 3.456  Dow Jones (6185)  S&P 500 (656) Nasdaq Comp (1191)

China – The Friday package a usual, but the Monday version the world be more aware of.

Hang Seng (14.109)  Shanghai B (110)  USD/CNY (6,8600)

It seems to be a new habit among Chinese senior politicians to announce a new support package for the whole economy or the financial markets on Friday’s. This Friday it was meant to cheer the stock markets due to a report from Xinhua News Agency.

China’s national pension fund (China’s National Council for Social Security Fund) should plan to increase its investments in listed stocks. It plans to take strategic stakes in China Development Bank and Agricultural Bank of China. I doubt this can make Chinese equity investors more confident and it was more or less expected from some market participants.

Again it more shows how concerned the Chinese leaders are for a sharp downturn. This became very clear last Thursday as Mr. Zhang Ping, Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, warned against a coming decline in economic activity. He stressed that the government needs to take “forceful” measures to change the current slowdown. He directly mentioned excessive production cuts, factory closures and massive unemployment leading to social unrest.

The Communist Party seems deeply worried about this risk. Factories close down every day around in China and the unemployment is rising, but I fear that the Communist Party knows economic data that we don’t know……..

Mr. Zhang also gave some more details on how the RMB 4000 billion big economic rescue package will be used:

RMB 3000 Billion will be spent on infrastructure. The RMB 1800 billion goes to railways, roads and airports. Another RMB 1000 billion of the 3000 is allocated to disaster reconstruction particular in the Sichuan province, hit by a serious earthquake in May.

 RMB 370 billion China will use on rural development and RMB 40 billion health and education. More details will follow when they are released.

From another source I have heard that many hotels in Beijing around the government offices who handle these funds are fully booked. Province government officials have rushed to Beijing to apply for the funds.

A lot of work is done to change and push the domestic part of the Chinese economy. It will succeed one day, but as mentioned I am afraid that the economic truth is more unpleasant than we are aware of.

This was repeated by President Hu Jintao over the weekend, where he confirmed the worries of too low growth to meet the needs from a growing population.

Very coincident USD/CNY jumped to 6,8600 and even higher. The reason was said to be the bad PMI number Monday but we are talking about a small devaluation to support Chinese exporters. As mentioned for some weeks ago, G20 will have a more than a difficult job because all countries just want to export more in a world with less demand……..

A long term thought that investors should consider. The Chinese government is doing a big effort to develop the Chinese consumers as a part of changing the economy to a domestic growth story. It most likely also means that the Chinese people develop an opinion about their life as a whole. Ask Mr. Gorbachev if he succeeded in creating a system with free and liberal market economy but without a free political system………

Hang Seng proved to be more influenced by the global stock market environment, whereas Chinese mainland stocks are dominated by domestic China news. I think it will continue so this week as well. I see no reason to change the targets despite the current positive sentiment for global equities.

Targets: Hang Seng 11.000     Shanghai B 90

Peter

Delayed update from 26th Nov.

Stocks: Sunny side up these days, but don’t get toasted.

We never see the bottom, before after the bottom, but I doubt it was last week.

Stock markets are globally in the good mood due to the above rescue packages. Good that many equity investors focus at the short term benefit instead of the coming higher government bond yield. Going forward the higher yields will compete with stocks. With lower corporate earnings in the coming years is the only compensation to buy stocks at a lower price than current levels.

I conclude that global demand for all sorts of goods has declined so much (not just temporary stopped), that the market place has become smaller. Either can all sellers of the goods accept to sell with a loss or some needs to disappear. A simple protection for investor is to buy market participants with high equity (or small debt ratio’s), but it will be really hard for these companies to obtain a satisfactory ROE. A lower share price before investors buy is a compensation.

It could be that all bad recession news is priced in the stock market. It would just be very early in the cycle that the market is able to price the whole downturn in.

All in all am I still very sceptical regarding stocks. As mentioned last week when S & P 500 broke 820 on the downside I was going for a new and lower target – it is 656.

I respect that we are in a tricky territory, so I will look closer at equities in the next Weekly. Targets for Dow Jones and Nasdaq will be corrected lower accordingly.

Currency markets: Swinging like a share.

Almost as usual is the currency market following stocks. The 1,3250 target in EUR/USD is getting closer, but my view is based on a Dollar sell off and not a bullish equity market. I expect EUR/USD to move back to the 1,2400 – 1,2900 range followed by a break upwards.

The EUR/JPY target at 118,50 has been reached 2 times now but I believe in a 3rd times as well. USD/JPY is currently well supported around 94,00 out of Japan, but I stay with the 90,00 target followed by intervention by Bank of Japan.

Round about the same story for Sterling as it was helped higher by the dollar going lower, but I keep the downwards target in EUR/GBP

China: Fighting the recession dragon

Just a few, but important, numbers to highlight this time.

Today’s rate cut of 108 basis points is another sign of how fierce the Communist Party fights to boost the domestic economy.

I simply stay with the view the that one day China will become a new US demand machine, but the number of people who believes in that probably has gone up. A study I got across last week showed that for 12 months ago 19% of all asset managers was overweight China stocks, lately this number was 67%. Maybe the asset managers just reduced other countries, all in all there fewer remaining buyers. On the other hand, last week it was possible for an asset manager to raise USD 1 billion to invest in Chinese stocks.

Yesterday the World Bank revised the growth forecast for 2009 down to 7,5%, well below the official target of 9,0%. Why is the Chinese Communist Party so worried about that when rest of the world is in recession? Net 20 million people enter the labour market yearly. China needs a yearly GDP growth rate around 9% to absorb the growing labour force otherwise it feels like recession.

I stay with the targets reached once at 11.000 in Hang Seng and 90 in Shanghai B. 

Do you remember the good old days?

The time, when a US rescue package worth the giant amount of USD 160 billion, could turn all markets around. Some economists even said that it would save the US economy from recession. Today (or more precise, last weekend) it wouldn’t even be enough to save a leading US bank……….

It leads to the headline from the stock market comment last week. Good news are doable, but the price is high and getting higher – I think that became clear for everybody during last Sunday. During the weekend the amount that the US government has guaranteed exceeded USD 7800 billion (through Fed, direct capital injections, through other channels, etc), the news agency Bloomberg calculated. It represents more than half of the total US GDP in 2007.

Only a few months ago President Bush presented the USD 160 billion package but today that amount would make people laugh. It shows how severe forces we are up against, as it requires bigger and bigger rescue packages to generate good news……..

A significant part of the risk are guarantees from Fed, but I am convinced that parts of the guarantees will be changed into cash obligations (i. e. real public debt).In addition Fed has raised their risk profile as yesterday’s rescue package included a direct credit risk.

One thing is for sure, the US Treasury will need to issue more debt. Also certain is that there will be buyers, but if you believe in the supply and demand curve, then the bet should be, that buyers are only to be found at higher interest rates. The efforts done with the endless number of US rescue packages are good and partly necessary. The price for many years with too low interest rates and excessive borrowing in the private household sector, is higher US T-Bill yields, particularly in the long end.

Japanese life insurance companies today said that they don’t buy US T-Bills at the current prices. China is a natural buyer with their USD 2 trillion large reserves, but China has its own rescue package of USD 600 billion now. Technically a country can not just take money from the currency reserves and spend domestic, but they can issue more debt. In that case a country might be more comfortable with currency reserves consisting of more cash or short dated T-Bills (i.e. avoiding the longer maturities). The Treasury Department should consider to hire some of the fixed income sales people that are around these days…….

I am not worried about, if US will get the debt financed, it’s just a matter of the price. What worries me is when the financial markets start to focus on the problem. Right now are rescue packages taken positive, but even the US President can’t save the world from itself. One day the US budget can’t take more obligations on, but who will decide when we have reached this point? The public opinion in US, the politicians on Capitol Hill or the financial markets?

If the US politicians wait until the financial markets say “enough”, then the obligations probably have become excessive. The US Treasury then truly has translated a short to mid term problem into a long term painful problem. We are not there yet, but………..

By the way, the (+1) 202 622 2000 phone number is to the switch board at U. S. Department of the Treasury.

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets. In my view it is still too early to enter anywhere with the strategic investments apart from oil – please read the Hot Topic below this entry. The China update every week is worth to read as China will overcome……

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the outlook here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

Currency markets – Capital flows are still making the lead.

EUR/USD (1,2710): Last week I thought it was time to focus on fundamentals. It turned out to be wrong and we are back in the situation where other currency pairs and equities decide EUR/USD movements. It’s difficult to say what economy looks worst but I keep my opinion that US is in the steepest downturn, leading to a rebound in EUR/USD one day. EUR/USD is nicely trading in the 1,2500 – 1,3000 range but a 1,2400 – 1,2900 is the one for this week.
The range trading in EUR/USD is a sign that the isolated EUR/JPY selling has stopped. We need to watch out for new lows in European equities. At that level further long European equities / short Yen could be closed.
The most interesting fundamentals this week are out of US, but they are not that serious as all eyes are on growth numbers. The US housing starts on Wednesday (expected 780k) I watch and then Philly Fed on Thursday (expected -35,0).
As I had the expectation of fundamentals returning as the key driver in FX I raised my target. I need to put it back to the range followed by 1,3250

Target: Range 1,2400 – 1,2500 followed by 1,3250.  

EUR/GBP (0,8460) – GBP (1,5020): 1½ weeks ago Bank of England surprised with 150 basis points. Last week they chocked the market with one of the most bearish central bank outlook I have seen for a long time. I thought all negative news was priced in but that was certainly not the case.

Regarding Sterling it’s more fundamentals deciding the trend compared to other currencies. Growth outlook is in focus but also public borrowing gets attention now. The political and central bank comments mean more than economic data. That’s what I keep an eye on this week.

The only good thing about the recommendation last week was the stop loss at 1,5420. The target was of course totally wrong. The economic situation in UK is gloomy, also more than in rest of Europe. Sterling will remain under pressure after the last Bank of England report. Depending on news about public finance I have the feeling that GBP will rebound a bit, and then we need to see what happens.

Targets: EUR/GBP 0,8250 – GBP/USD 1,6500 / stop loss 1,5200.

EUR/JPY (123,35) – USD/JPY (97,05): Good swings in JPY is still the case but as mentioned under EUR/USD it’s not limited to EUR/JPY anymore. Capital moves towards Japan sent EUR/JPY to the target of 118,50 last week, though also partly caused by EUR/USD trading lower instead of higher.

All economic data from any country is negative but I need to mention the Japanese GDP numbers. Not only was July – September negative but the April – June was revised further down. Some recessions have been technical recessions with 0,1 or 0,2% negative growth in 2 quarters. This time the numbers are very different – unfortunately.

If fundamentals decided the JPY trend, Yen would be much lower but the capital flows is the name of the game. Watch the stock market comments, it’s where the clues are. I keep the targets.

   
Targets: EUR/JPY 118,50 – USD/JPY 90,00.

Equities – Any good news left ? Certainly, the price for the last one was $700 bio, how much next ?

Nikkei 225 (8.523)  Topix (850)  Dax (4.616)  FTSE 100 (4.174) Dow Jones (8.497)  S&P 500 (873) Nasdaq Comp (1.517)  

Let’s start wit G20. G7 never really agreed on something apart from where to meet next time. Should it be easier when 20 countries needs to agree who should suffer the most (remember we are in a downturn – it’s not growth we are sharing) – to be honest I doubt it (please also read the China part).
They agreed to control the financial sector more. It might be correct to do so, but it doesn’t bring any growth right now. On the contrary will banks be more reluctant to do anything at all, including lending money out.
The coordinated fiscal driven global growth plan was postponed is my feeling. Or each country goes back home to support the domestic economy.
It’s ok that equity markets react negative as it underlines how serious the situation is. The politicians have realised how badly the global economy is looking and the markets can smell it.

As mentioned several times, is what we go through now the consequence of a credit bobble that busted. The asset markets are repricing, it’s very painful, but not a punishment of anybody. It feels like a punishment and those with high debt ratio’s are feeling this in particular.

If we believe in repricing of assets, there will be an overshooting on the downside, meaning cheap assets can be bought at a certain time. The golden question is, if one should buy at -25% or -90%? Too early to say, I can just repeat, don’t buy yet.

I feel it’s a bit overdone to mention any macro news from last week as they were all between very bad and awful.
No wonder that the G20 people are unhappy about the situation. They can’t avoid the recession, but should focus on avoiding the depression.
It seems sensible to use fiscal policy to fight the depression, but the good news cost a lot of money now. My best guess is that financial institutions will require more money. The automobile and automotive sector is the next to be rescued – how much do you want to pay? The rescue till come but not jobs will be saved, meaning more unemployed but not so many that we enter a depression.

Apart from the Chinese stocks (please read below) I still watch one thing in the Japanese market. Last week I wrote about the Japanese GPIF fund might buy stocks short term. Naturally it’s hard to get precise information, but during several sessions the Japanese morning is fairly negative but then the market turns back to almost positive territory followed by another sell off. A trading pattern that indicates a big player is in the market.

In US we actually reached the 820 in S&P 500 last week followed by an enormous rebound. I don’t regard the target as reached in the way that there is any need to change it. The rebound indicates that 820 in S&P 500 is a very interesting level (don’t buy even if we touch).
It also confirms that we enter a life where people buy shares for different reason. Long term technical support, emotional reasons like it feels cheap, or it’s a well known must have company. Different factors that aren’t based on rational thinking. Within the last days I have spoken with several private investors, who simply are happy to buy now – one day it will take over…..

In absence of true important macro economic figures this week, the markets will be dominated by the underlying macro gloomy outlook. Now and then with emotional or technical caused buying.
Just a few earning reports from US this week, Home Depot Inc. on Tuesday and Dell, Inc. is out Thursday.
 

Targets: Nikkei 225 6.683  Topix 697  DAX 3.906  FTSE 100 3.456  Dow Jones (7730)  S&P 500 (820)  Nasdaq Comp (1489)

China – Mainland stocks should have gone down but they went up……

Hang Seng (13.529)  Shanghai B (110)  USD/CNY (6,8235)

As discussed last week, the Chinese stimulus package was good news if the headlines were the truth. As mentioned, some economists took the news cautious and they were right to do so. Ahead of the weekend (but late enough so the G20 participants learned about it after the summit), it became clear that the stimulus package in reality is ¼ of the promised amounts. The rest (after all 75%) is planed to come from commercial banks, regions and other sources, but very unfortunate it is less realistic.

The Communist Party was very smart to let the stimulus package news overshadow the partly very bad news during last week. Fair, the Chinese equity market was buoyant, but maybe strange that it continued this morning, despite the adjusted details about the stimulus package.
 
There are rumours about a large government backed stabilisation fund in the size of RMB 600 – 800 billion aimed to support the domestic A shares.
As usual is nothing really confirmed but it sounds very possible. This was another key to the 17% rebound in A shares last week (B shares went 8% up).
At what level the fund gets active (if at all) is the current speculation, but some point at 1500 in Shanghai A as very important. That’s 30% down from today’s close, but when the plan was thought out the index was trading at 1800.

Last week I mentioned that some funds might be running short positions in Chinese B shares. If some are closed out I can’t say, but it of course fuels the upside.

I keep the targets for Hang Seng and Shanghai B. The reason is as mentioned several times earlier that I regard the globally bearish markets as the biggest danger to Chinese stocks. China will feel the global crisis even more, but the government is of all governments, the most active in supporting the domestic demand.

This leads to a line on USD/CNY. People’s Bank of China’s Zhou Xiaochuan hinted that China might let their currency depreciate. China also announced more export rebates (another word for subsidies) so they just need to restrict import, then they are running a full blown protection policy. All announced the days around the G20 summit – it look’s difficult for G20.    

Targets: Hang Seng 11.000     Shanghai B 90

Central bank rates

US Federal Reserve Bank: Now Fed is at 1,00%. They might cut again, but going below 0,50% is very difficult as money market funds will create a negative return. This would create too big problems is my view.

Bank of England: Now at 3,00% and they will take the base rate lower is they find it necessary.  

European Central Bank: Further cuts are already priced in. Some ECB members signalised another 50 is possible, and it seems to happen before Christmas.

Bank of Japan: 0,30% and they might even cut again, but of course it won’t change anything.

I am looking forward to your comments and wish everybody a profitable week.

Peter