Get Markets Right

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

The week has been extremly busy and then I caused some technical problems – all in all it gave some days delay with I apologise for. Probably also causing some text problems this week, not always so easy J

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – The Greenback is the key again

Equities – Realistic risk conversations would help the market.

China – Wen…

China – Expectations beats reality

Hang Seng (11.931) Shanghai B (140,00) USD/CNY (6,8350)

Last week the yearly National People’s Congress (NPC) took place. Broadly covered by many news

agencies, but I of course highlight what I think is interesting for the market. Primarily the comments made in

connection with the NPC.

To be very honest, the congress didn’t bring much new apart from macro economic pep talk. That the

Communist Party didn’t had much new to offer probably was the biggest surprise for many domestic

investors.

Just one thing should be noted. The Director for the National Development and Reform Commission Mr.

Zhang Ping announced that the large 4 trillion Yuan stimulus package will be adjusted. Infrastructure

investments will be cut by 300 billion Yuan. Technology projects get an…

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – The Greenback is the key again

Equities – Realistic risk conversations would help the market.

China – Wen thinks its ok, or does he?

Central bank rates – they give it another try at ECB……

China – Wen thinks its ok, or does he?

Hang Seng (13.437)  Shanghai B (148,50)  USD/CNY (6,8340)

Chinese stocks went lower last week. I say it makes sense because equities only went up each time a new part of the stimulus plan was released. The bulls will say that the China mainland economy has seen the worst, and therefore one of course needs to be long China mainland stocks. To be honest it’s not an easy call, but you know my standing. I see the recovery in the stock market as premature and too early, but there is a lot of information to elaborate.

During this weekend the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was on the first ever on-line chat with the public.…

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – Event risks are rising

Equities – It feels heavy……

China – So far the Ox turned out to be a bull.

Central bank rates – The next in line is ECB

China – So far the Ox turned out to be a bull.

Hang Seng (13.437)  Shanghai B (148,50)  USD/CNY (6,8340)

Chinese mainland stock markets continues up with domestic investors (A indices) as the key driver. No doubt that a part of the force is the fact that investors only can invest in real estate, stocks and place money on deposit.

Very understandable that stocks looks as the preferred alternative as long as the stimulus packages are rolled out. An example from last week was the ship builders that got a national protection, sending shares significant up within the same day. The usual question is, if this is sustainable?

It continues to be a matter of faith, where I continue to be skeptical. The…

China – China mainland is going from upbeat to real bid……

Hang Seng (13.769)  Shanghai B (141,00)  USD/CNY (6,8325)

Shanghai B is up from 126,50 to 141,00 on the week (11,5%) and up more than 50% since November last year.

This is serious for a bear like myself. It would not be trustworthy just to keep a target on the downside without reacting on the developments. I remain skeptical but raise the target from 90 to 110 for Shanghai B.

The current development is very tricky as we have the Communist Party using all possible methods to create a turnaround feeling, hungry Chinese investors buying A shares sending B shares higher as well, foreign investors jumping on the B wagon. All partly based…

Below you will find my weekly view on the very challenging financial markets.

Read more about all the interesting happenings in the financial markets in the 4 entries here below. I hope you find it interesting to read my private view about the consequences for the stock markets, currencies, China and what to expect from the central banks.

The 4 entries from today are:

Currency markets – A bagful of mixed sweets this week.

Equities – Which late night show are you watching ?

China – So far China mainland is upbeat.

Central bank rates – Another cut to save the world this week……

China – So far China mainland is upbeat.

Hang Seng (12.861)  Shanghai B (126,50)  USD/CNY (6,8475)

China mainland stocks continued up on the first on the first trading day after the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations.

I have long argued that Chinese shares will be among the first to rebound when its time to go long again, but is it time now ?

Chinese mainland stocks have shown some strength since the low last year, but as always, are stock investors playing on the same hand as the Chinese government. The current positive sentiment is mainly due to trust in increased government support rather than healthy growth. This makes the position as investor more difficult and life after the stimulus packages even more unclear.…

China – The Ox has arrived…….

Hang Seng (12.579)  Shanghai B (124)  USD/CNY (6,84)

Again very interesting with China mainland ending last week higher and Hang Seng dropping further. Hang Seng is a fair picture of the global movements. The domestic investors might have bought stocks at the Chinese year end with the expectation that the year of the Ox will be better than the year of the Rat.

With the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations going on for some days, the financial markets will be closed. The days are normally good for retail sales, though it should be priced in the market.

Some statistical data from last week is worth to use in the big picture.

The sales of condominiums to private individuals…